In the national matchup among registered voters, Obama leads McCain by eight points, 48% to 40%, which is slightly larger than Obama'south atomic number 82 in late May (47% to 44%). Obama is doing about as well among well-nigh demographic groups as Kerry and Gore were doing at this stage four and eight years ago, respectively. The major exception is younger voters: Obama has larger leads amongst voters under age xxx, too equally those ages 30 to 49, than either Kerry or Gore.

Obama and McCain receive comparable levels of back up from voters in their own parties (82% each), and are roughly even among independents (42% for Obama, 41% for McCain). Obama'southward advantage is a result of the fact that Democrats outnumber Republicans among registered voters (37% to 26%) in the poll.

Obama holds a big lead amongst voters under age 30 (56% to 36%), the least affluent (59% to 29% among those with family incomes under $thirty,000), likewise equally African Americans (90% to 3%), and the religiously unaffiliated (67% to 24%).

Since May, Obama has increased his advantage among women voters; currently, he leads McCain amidst women by 51% to 37%; in May, his pb was only five points (47% to 42%). Men are divided, 45% for Obama, 44% for McCain.

McCain holds an eight-point atomic number 82 (48% to 40%) among white voters overall, a result of his 17-point advantage amidst white men; among white women, the candidates are tied (43% each). 8 years agone, Bush led Gore in June past 9 points amid white voters; in 2004, Bush-league led Kerry past xv points among this grouping.

Amid white voters who take not attended college, McCain holds a pocket-sized 45% to 39% lead. Bush-league led Gore by a comparable margin in June 2000 (48% to 42%), and held a wider advantage over Kerry among non-college whites iv years ago (53% to 41%).

White evangelical Protestants favor McCain over Obama by a margin of 61% to 25%, a smaller reward than in May this year when his lead was 71% to 20%. Amidst white mainline Protestants, McCain leads Obama 53% to 39%. He as well has a 46%-40% edge amongst white non-Hispanic Catholics. White Catholics were more than evenly divided at this stage in the elections of 4 and eight years ago.

Most Back McCain Only Moderately

In improver to trailing Obama by eight points overall, McCain also receives far less potent backing from his supporters. Of the 40% who favor McCain over Obama this fall, barely a third (14% of voters overall) say they support him strongly. Nearly twice as many (26% of voters overall) say they back McCain "only moderately." By comparison, virtually of Obama'southward backers describe themselves as strong supporters (28% of voters overall), while xix% of voters nationwide say they are only moderate supporters of Obama.

The disparity in strong back up for the two candidates this yr is the largest measured in the past two decades. Amidst all registered voters, twice as many describe themselves as strong Obama backers than call themselves stiff McCain backers (28% vs. 14%).

Four years agone, Bush had a slight edge over Kerry in strong support (32% vs. 28%), though both men drew more strong bankroll than moderate backing. In June 2000, fewer than one-half of both Bush'south and Gore's backers said they supported their candidate strongly. The last ballot that exhibited a substantial intensity gap at this point of the campaign was 1996; though neither candidate garnered a nifty deal of strong back up, more backed Clinton strongly (22%) than Bob Dole (xiii%).

The intensity of back up for Obama at this stage of the entrada is identical to how voters felt about Kerry in August 2004. Just McCain's standing is a stark contrast to the intensity of support for Bush 4 years ago, when the vast majority of Bush's voters said they backed him strongly. And in June 2000, xx% of voters backed Bush strongly, compared with 14% for McCain today.

The strength of support for McCain is more comparable to early feelings among Dole's supporters in June 1996 and George H.W. Bush's supporters in the early stages of the 1992 and 1988 campaigns. In all three cases, twice as many backers said they were only moderate supporters as said they backed the candidates strongly.

Key GOP Groups Lack Strong Delivery

The lack of strong support for McCain is particularly notable inside the Republican base. While but over 8-in-10 (82%) Republicans back up McCain over Obama, just about a 3rd (35%) says they are strong McCain supporters. 4 years ago, nearly three-quarters of Republicans (73%) described themselves as strong supporters of George West. Bush, and in 2000 47% backed Bush strongly.

McCain fails to draw a groovy deal of strong support from any segment of the GOP base. Fewer than four-in-10 conservative Republicans and moderate and liberal Republicans support McCain strongly (36% and 34%, respectively). Similarly, just 35% of weekly churchgoers, and an identical pct of those who attend less frequently, say they back up McCain strongly. In August 2004, Bush attracted potent support from substantial majorities in each of these groups.
Looking dorsum to the 2000 campaign, McCain runs about slightly improve among moderate and liberal Republicans than Bush did in June of that year, but he lags well backside in terms of strong back up from conservatives. In June 2000, 58% of conservative Republicans said they backed Bush strongly; today just 36% offer the same level of back up to McCain.

Obama's Strong Back up

A majority (55%) of Democratic voters strongly support Obama, a much greater proportion than the share of Republicans who back McCain strongly (35%). However, amidst Democrats, there are sizable differences in the intensity of support for Obama across some demographic groups.

Obama attracts considerably more than stiff support among African American Democrats than among white Democrats; nearly eight-in-ten black Autonomous voters (77%) say they support Obama strongly, compared with fewer than half of white Democrats (47%). In August 2004, Kerry besides drew more than stiff support among blackness Democrats than amidst whites, just the gap was much smaller than it currently is for Obama (65% of black Democrats vs. 56% of white Democrats).

A solid bulk of Democrats under age 50 (61%) strongly backs Obama; far fewer older Democratic voters (48%) say they support him strongly. This likewise marks a meaning difference from the design of Kerry's back up four years ago, and Gore'due south in 2000. Both candidates drew more potent back up among older Democratic voters than among younger Democrats.

Liberal Democrats strongly support Obama at college rates than practice conservative and moderate Democrats (68% vs. 50%). That was also the case for Kerry in August 2004, as well every bit for Gore in 2000, though Gore drew less strong back up from both groups than either Kerry or Obama.

Primary Political Fallout

The vast majority of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who backed another candidate during the primaries at present support McCain in the full general election horserace. In fact, near the aforementioned proportion of GOP voters who did not prefer him in the primaries as those who did now support McCain (84% vs. 82%).

Obama, on the other hand, draws much less support from former Clinton supporters than he does among Autonomous and Democratic-leaning voters who backed him for the nomination. Just 69% of former Clinton supporters back up Obama in the general election; 17% back up McCain and 14% say they don't know or volunteer someone else. Obama wins the support of virtually all the Democrats who favored him for the nomination (91%).

On residuum, more than one-time Clinton backers support Obama simply moderately than support him strongly (39% vs. 30%). But McCain has even lower levels of strong support from Republicans who favored another candidate for the nomination; simply a quarter of this grouping supports McCain strongly, compared with 57% who support him only moderately.

In a similar vein, only well-nigh one-half of GOP and Republican-leaning voters (47%) – including just 35% of Republicans who backed someone other than McCain for the nomination – say they are satisfied with the quality of candidates this year. Nearly three-quarters of Autonomous and Democratic-leaning voters (72%) – including a solid majority of former Clinton supporters (58%) – say they are satisfied with their presidential choices.

More than Republican voters than Democratic voters also hold that it is difficult to choose between Obama and Clinton because neither would make a skilful president (37% vs. 24%). A relatively large minority of former Clinton supporters (37%) believes neither candidate would make a good president, simply an even larger proportion of GOP voters who did not back McCain for the nomination subscribes to this sentiment (45%).

Views of Obama-Clinton Ticket

More than than one-half of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters (55%) would similar Obama to name Hillary Clinton his running mate. The proportion favoring this pairing has changed petty since March, when 59% held that view; in May, 53% said they would like to come across Obama cull Clinton.

Those who supported Clinton in the primaries remain far more enthusiastic about the joint-ticket idea – 78% dorsum it – than those who supported Obama in the primaries. But 37% of them recall Obama should brand Clinton his vice presidential choice, while 59% say he should not. There is virtually no alter in the 2 groups' opinions on this question since May.

Democratic and Autonomous-leaning women voters – who were a primal segment of Clinton'southward base of operations – are more likely than Democratic men to want to come across Clinton on the ticket (60% versus 49%). This does not vary substantively across age groups. Democratic voters with the everyman household incomes likewise are more than likely to favor having Clinton every bit the vice presidential candidate than are their better off counterparts.

Most Autonomous voters who have completed college – a grouping that tended to favor Obama in the primaries – oppose Obama choosing Clinton as his running mate (54% say no, 39% say yeah). Autonomous voters with less teaching are much more supportive of the thought: About six-in-ten Autonomous voters with either some higher pedagogy (64%) or no more than than a high schoolhouse education (sixty%) would like Clinton to exist Obama's running mate.

Nearly two-thirds of conservative Democratic voters (65%) say they would like to see Obama choose Clinton as his vice presidential candidate. That compares with 53% of moderate Democrats and half of liberal Democrats.

Bear on of Obama-Clinton Ticket

More than half dozen-in-ten voters (62%) who say they supported Clinton for the Autonomous nomination say her presence on the ticket would make them more probable to vote for Obama. This sentiment is equally strong among the majority of old Clinton supporters who already back Obama (69% favor him over McCain) as it is amid the minority who either favor McCain or are undecided. As such, the greater benefit for Obama might come up in reinforcing support amid one-time Clinton supporters rather than bringing in those who are disaffected.

Simply putting Clinton on the ticket also has potential downsides. Amid all registered voters, opinion is divided over how Clinton's presence on the ticket would affect their votes. Almost half (49%) say that it would brand no difference to their vote if Obama picked Clinton; 26% say that if Obama picked Clinton, they would be less likely to vote for him; another 23% say they would be more probable to vote for him if he made that selection.

Amongst swing voters, 28% say they would be more likely to vote for Obama if he ran with Clinton, while a third (33%) say they would be less likely to vote for Obama if he took Clinton every bit his running mate. Some other 35% say it would not matter.

Fewer See McCain Winning

Far fewer voters believe that McCain will win the election than predicted a McCain victory in April. Currently, 53% say Obama is most likely to win, compared with 27% who say McCain. In April, 47% expected an Obama victory, while 42% said McCain was nigh likely to prevail. The proportion who declined to offer a prediction has nearly doubled, from eleven% to twenty%, since April.

McCain'southward own supporters – and Republican voters more generally – are far less optimistic most his chances than they were simply two months agone. Only about half of McCain supporters (49%) say he is most likely to win; in Apr, 69% said he was near likely to prevail in the autumn. Conservative Republicans as well are less confident about McCain's prospects than they were in April: 49% at present say he is more likely to win, compared with 70% and then.

By greater than two-to-1 (54% to 24%), more independents say Obama, rather than McCain, is more than likely to win the November election. Independents were more evenly divided in Apr (46% Obama vs. 43% McCain).

Democratic voters are even more confident of victory in the fall than they were in April. Just 15% say McCain is most likely to win, down from 27% in April. The proportion of Democratic voters expecting an Obama victory has risen modestly, from 65% to lxx%, since so.

One-in-3 are 'Swing Voters'

A tertiary of registered voters this year indicate that they are undecided or say they might modify their heed well-nigh their vote selection, which is larger than the size of the swing vote in 2004 (21%) and nearly equal to the size of the swing vote eight years ago (32% vs. 33% today). These and then-chosen swing voters are divided into 3 roughly equal groups: those who just lean to McCain or who say there is some risk they will vote for Obama (xi% of the total); those who lean to Obama merely say there is some chance they will vote for McCain (x%); and the completely undecided (12% who refused to lean one way or the other).

Certain Obama voters — those who say there is no take a chance they'll vote for McCain — outnumber certain McCain voters past 38% to 29%. This ix-point advantage in certain support is much higher than either political party's nominee has enjoyed over the by five presidential election cycles. In 2004, 2000, and 1992, the voters sure about their choice divided evenly between the Republican and Democratic candidates. In July 1996, Democratic incumbent Nib Clinton had a 5-point advantage in certain support over his Republican opponent, Bob Dole.

The larger swing vote now compared with iv years ago is a result of greater Republican dubiousness as well equally the large number of independents who have yet to settle on a candidate.

Almost a quarter of bourgeois Republicans (24%) are now classified equally swing voters, which is much greater than the pct of conservative Republican swing voters in both 2004 and 2000 (6% and 14%, respectively). Moderate and liberal Republicans are much more uncertain virtually their vote selection: 43% are classified as swing voters, compared with 26% four years ago, and 30% viii years ago.

Independents also are much less settled now than in 2004, though their level of doubt is comparable to that seen in 2000. This year, 46% are classified as swing voters, compared with 45% viii years and just 28% in 2004. Among bourgeois and moderate Democrats, 27% are currently non certain, similar to the 30% in 2000 and slightly higher than in 2004 (when 23% were swing voters). Just xiv% of liberal Democrats are not certain about their vote, which is about the same as in June 2004 (17%), and slightly less than in 2000 (23%).

Swing Voters' Attitudes

Demographically, the swing voters are non markedly unlike from the rest of the electorate. In terms of gender, age, income, marital condition, and other personal characteristics, they closely friction match other voters. They are somewhat less educated than certain McCain voters or c
ertain Obama voters. In terms of partisanship they divide evenly (27% each) between Democrat and Republican. On the issues of ballgame, gay marriage, the war in Republic of iraq, and drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, their views mirror those of the public as a whole.

With respect to evaluations of the candidates, swing voters favor McCain on some attributes and Obama on the others. For instance, a narrow majority (52%) says Obama is the candidate ameliorate able to connect well with ordinary Americans, and 55% choose Obama as the candidate who is more personally likeable.

But an even larger majority (58%) says McCain is the candidate well-nigh likely to use skillful judgment in a crisis, and more – though not a majority – say McCain is the candidate who shares their values (37% say this about McCain, 25% Obama).